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Guided tour · Evidence · step 9 of 11

Zero observed failures is not a rate of zero

The most persuasive number on a leaderboard is often the one with the least evidence behind it.

First, commit to an answer

A decoder reports 0 logical failures in 10,000 shots. What is its logical error rate?

Decide before you follow the link. Nothing is recorded — the value is in having been wrong on purpose once.

Now go and look

Find a run with no observed failures and read what the rate column says and does not say.

Open the example

What you should see

Unknown, but below roughly 3.8×10⁻⁴ at 95% confidence. It is not zero, and a zero-failure row would otherwise sort to the top of every ranking.